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we interrupt this broadcast

Post #359 • September 2, 2004, 5:54 AM • 30 Comments

Due to this weekend's weather-related festivities, Artblog.net shall suspend operations through Monday. Wish us luck down here - I think we may need it.

Comment

1.

beWare

September 2, 2004, 1:36 PM

Oh! It's not going to hit us.

2.

Franklin

September 2, 2004, 2:09 PM

Mr. Ware and I debated this point yesterday. I maintain that it won't hit us. But it's not exactly going to miss us either. See the site of the National Hurricane Center, from which I got the above image. The previously reliable GFS and GDL models want to put the storm track further north while the NOGAPS and UKMET confirm the current track. The Super Ensemble running out of the U. of Florida agreed with the latter. Southward tracking at this point would surprise all of models if not the human forecasters, who maintian that the eye could still hit the north Keys, for all they can say with certainty. We can feel sure of one thing: if you were planning a barbecue this Saturday, you may want to reschedule.

3.

Franklin

September 2, 2004, 2:48 PM

I guess I should add for readers not following every word coming out of the NHC that the current track puts the eye north of Lake Okechobee. The lake lies about three hours north from here if you're speeding, so let's say 200 miles. Hurricane force winds extend 85 miles around the eye, so that puts us out of range of the worst. Personally, I feel concerned about the 45-degree angle of attack that puts the eye at Brevard county or so and kicks Palm Beach in the groin. Any wobble in the track forecast could have the storm smacking us sideways, but right now scientists are looking at a northward wobble if anything. Tropical force winds, at least, for South Florida remain assured, but I once drove to an opening in a tropical storm, not that this event marked a high point in my intellectual life.

4.

Denise

September 2, 2004, 4:17 PM

The worrisome thing about this storm is that it's really wide, I think. I've heard that the center is something like 30 miles across? I'm not sure about how accurate that is--but at the very least it sounds like this is a hardcore storm.

I hope everyone stays safe! I was hoping to go to the New Civic Art lecture at Books and Books tomorrow night, but that's starting to look, um, not realistic.

5.

eddie

September 2, 2004, 5:39 PM

A hurricane?! See you guys later, i'm goin surfin!

6.

Franklin

September 2, 2004, 6:27 PM

Go for it, dude! You could become the first person in history to surf directly from West Palm Beach to Tampa!

7.

eddie

September 2, 2004, 6:55 PM

you're right Franklin, i should start from the Bahamas!

8.

Franklin

September 2, 2004, 7:42 PM

Okay, I just looked at a map and saw that Lake Okechobee lies more like, well, 75 miles away. I now assess our position as pretty lousy. If Frances ducks left, Miami's going on a trip to Doodooville. But if it holds steady we should still miss the worst. The GFS and GFDL models mentioned above now agree with the other models about the current track and forecasters feel more confident about it.

9.

beWare

September 3, 2004, 1:52 AM

Predicting what this hurricane will do next is like predicting where a fly, in a room of lights, will land next .

10.

Franklin

September 3, 2004, 2:19 AM

Yeah, now the eyewall has collapsed and even the NHC guys say the track is "wobbling." Scary. But the satellite images look pretty beautiful.

11.

Jerome du Bois

September 3, 2004, 2:40 AM

Franklin:

The CNN weatherguy said this morning that Frances was, at one point, generating enough energy to power the entire world for five hours.

Haysoos Marimba!

You're in our thoughts, hermano.

Jerome and Catherine

12.

Denise

September 3, 2004, 4:26 AM

Hey, I'm curious about how/if other artists are getting ready for the storm. Is anyone doing anything specific to protect their work/documentation/supplies/papers, just in case? Franklin--how about you? I'm getting kind of overwhelmed and worried. I'm trying to keep an "if anything happens to my stuff, that just means I'll have to make lots of new work!" attitude, I guess.

13.

Franklin

September 3, 2004, 5:55 AM

I share your attitude about the stacks of decade-old artwork. I'll make something better. My windows have no defenses, so I cleared the yard and I will get everything I can off of the floors. I'm boxing up the solvents - turp and whatnot, and putting them somewhere safe. Tomorrow's to do list: clean catbox, put trash curbside, box turps, take in plants, pay beginning of month bills online while possible, get stuff off floors. If we find ourselves in the red zone, I'll tape some key windows and put towels on the sills. And, because we are all going to get through this just fine, I'm purchasing Beastie Boys tickets for their October show in Sunrise, just to demonstrate to Frances that some of us went through Andrew and that she can kiss my lily-white ass.

14.

denise

September 3, 2004, 6:28 AM

ooh, you just reminded me that I need to buy pixies reunion tour tix for october. i bought a 30-gallon plastic storage bin thingy that will hopefully keep a bunch of my studio stuff dry, if anything. our windows aren't secured or anything either. yikes.

also, i thought i'd share this--in case any other miami people are out there who haven't been able to find bottled water, office depot had plenty of it as of early this afternoon. it didn't seem like it had occurred to many people to go there; they were all cleaning out publix instead.

15.

Franklin

September 3, 2004, 6:59 AM

Um, ixnay on putting the trash on the curb. My neighbor says they cancelled collection. The Herald says "Miami: Trash collection suspended. Miami-Dade: Regular service as long as weather permits." Go figure.

Good news: Frances got demoted to Cat 3 (no warranties implied by NHC) and Miami now lies in a lower probability zone of the eye passing within 75 miles (10 - 19%). Not so good news: Frances is following a ridge of high pressure on its north side, and said ridge comes down through the Gulf southward. The wraparound-style front is slowing the track down, which may prolong the agony for whoever finally gets to deal with the storm. Slow forward motion also correlates to the wobblies. Fingers crossed.

Denise: Good idea with the big bin. JdB & CK: muchas gracias, amigos.

Off to bed - we may not get much sleep tomorrow night.

16.

oldpro

September 4, 2004, 5:31 PM

Our esteemed Guvner Jeb has twice said on TV that he hopes "no one takes comfort" in the fact that the hurricane has been demoted and that he "sometimes gets irritated at the media" for reporting this, because presumably giving factual evidence that we may not be blown off the face of the earth is going to make everyone go dancing in the streets where they will be hit by flying ficus trees.

Actually, the people I have talked to, especially the younger ones who have not been through this routine, are completely panicked and overreacting. If the officials would stick to the facts and stop telling people how to behave I think everyone would do what's right. I can't help feeling in synch with Eddie. Go surf!

17.

denise

September 4, 2004, 11:39 PM

i know - it's funny, i got a lot more worried about the weather once i started watching the tv coverage of it. i felt relatively OK about everything while i was just listening to the radio.

18.

Franklin

September 5, 2004, 2:49 AM

We have a ritual: hurricane comes, surfers go surfing in the only decent waves you ever get down here, television crews go out to interview surfers to ask them fascinating questions ("How can you have such disregard for your own life?"), anchorbunnies back at the studio cluck disapprovingly, camera cuts to reporter getting blown around in the rain, waxing idiotic about the size of waves in background, more radar images... I came up with the Hurricane Frances Drinking Game.

Drink one shot if:

The guy in the pinstripe Mafioso suit on Channel 7 tries to turn "tornado" into an adjective ("tornadic")

Roland Steadham on Channel 6 asks the video guys to switch the radar views on the screen and they don't

Max Mayfield of the NHC says something unintelligibly drawled

Any reporter fails to understand why the winds are blowing out of the west and has to have it explained to them

Anyone says a tautology or near-tautology ("The hurricane is going to be hanging around for a while because it's moving so slowly")

Brian Norcross on Channel 4 contradicts himself in consecutive sentences or mid-sentence

Anyone scolds a surfer

Add your own...

19.

Franklin

September 5, 2004, 2:55 AM

I forgot the most important one:

Drink one shot whenever anyone says "feeder band"

20.

Franklin

September 5, 2004, 3:01 AM

Oh, and, Mr. Ware? Told you so.

21.

oldpro

September 5, 2004, 4:04 PM

Reporter one: So it looks like maybe this is going to be a rain event instead of a wind event.
Reporter two: It will certainly be some kind of event, for sure

Reporter to man who kept his restaurant open: What do you think you are doing?
Man: Well, the storm isn't that bad, and there are a lot of hungry and thirsty people, and besides I am doing good business
Reporter: Well, its your life, but I think you should go home and tell all your customers to do the same.

Brian Norcross: If it goes here (white arrow to Miami) it is a short distance and if it goes here (white arrow to Melbourne) it is a longer distance so this (another white arrow to Miami) would take a shorter time than this (another white arrow to Melbourne). So take your pick. Either way it is a dangerous hurricane.

Reporter: And why are you in line here ar 84 Lumber?
Sweating, uncomfortable man: To buy plywood
Reporter: to board up your house?
Man: Yes
Reporter: Do you think they will have any when you get to the head of the line?
Man: I hope so
Reporter: Good luck to you, sir.
Man: Thanks

Broward County Sheriff: And if you don't leave when the deputies tell you to leave, their next question will be "who is your next of kin" because that is who we will be notifying when this is all over

Brian Norcross: This thing doesn't have an eye any more but if it did have an eye it would be right about here (draws large white circle). Of course we couldn't call that an "eye" exactly, but we could call it the "center of circulation", that is, at least we could if it was clear enough to find.

Reporter: I think we should make it clear that this "cone of air" is not a real cone of air, I mean if you look outside you will not see a big cone in the sky (laughter) but it is real in a way because it shows you where this dangerous storm might go, which if you look at this cone of air, the one on the screen, it covers the entire state of Florida, which is a lot of wind.

Mayor Pinelas: Another real danger is standing water. Please do not let your children go ouit and play in standing water, because there might be a downed power line, and also standing water presents a serious bacteria situation.

22.

oldpro

September 5, 2004, 4:45 PM

Reporter in field, referring to surfer about 100 feet off shore, bobbing in huge waves: Someone ought to go tell that guy he is risking his life out there.
Anchor: Better stay where you are, Ed.

Reporter,tightly wrapped in yellow slicker, buffeted by rain and wind: Actually it is hard to even think, standing in this extreme wind and rain, and it is only going to get worse.
(Man walks by with dog on leash)
Reporter: Excuse me sir, why are you out in this storm?
Man: I had to walk my dog
Don't you know there is a curfew, and it is dangerous to be out here?
Man: I've seen worse. Excuse me, I've got to walk my dog.

Camera focuses close in on shingle lying on street
First reporter: This is the kind of dangerous object that could be flying around out there. You wouldn't want to get hit by this coming at you at a hundred miles an hour.
Second reporter: Could cut you in two, or something.
First reporter: Something like that

23.

beWare

September 5, 2004, 5:03 PM

I claim to be an expert on nothing. How accurate your statement was the other day Franklin is very relative. We did in fact get "hit" by Hurricane Frances. To what degree is what is important. We were lucky. Assuming to have knowledge of what a hurricane will do when it is still out at sea seems very suspect to me. In fact I am unclear on why anyone would pretend to have such knowledge. It's a guess, a toss of a coin. You don't need to be an expert to know that weather conditions are very unpredictable, too many variables to consider, anything can and does happen.

Here is one of my new favorite quotes: distrust those who say they have found the truth, trust those who say they are searching for it.

Anyone go to the Dorsch opening?

24.

Franklin

September 5, 2004, 5:32 PM

Ware: yeah, but when you're right, you're right.

Nah, I'm just teasing you, man. This thing could have pulled the Punta Gorda Sucker Punch on us, and even so, Frances did some weird stuff: asymmetrical weather distribution, turning into a giant doughnut, stalling. The NHC called it this time, and we got lucky down here.

Nevertheless, I totally should have bet you on this.

25.

Franklin

September 5, 2004, 5:34 PM

I just talked to Brook and the opening pretty much didn't happen. Look for a re-opening on the 11th, next Saturday.

26.

oldpro

September 5, 2004, 6:07 PM

Interesting quote, Ware: "Distrust those who say they have found the truth, trust those who say they are searching for it."

What happens when one of those trustworthy souls stumbles on the truth? Do they lie about it, or do they subject themselves to your distrust?

27.

beWare

September 5, 2004, 11:33 PM

How will one know when the "truth" has been stumbled upon? We all define it for ourselves possibly but we are so flawed aren't we? Do truisms in art also apply to those in life? As Picasso said concerning his own work , "I am searching and not finding".

28.

beWare

September 5, 2004, 11:36 PM

Franklin! Lay your bets on Ivan?

29.

Franklin

September 5, 2004, 11:48 PM

Maybe! Get back to me when Ivan hits Cuba!

Mother of God, we could be dealing with this shit again next weekend...

30.

oldpro

September 6, 2004, 1:42 AM

As far as I am concerned, Ware, I would not spend a lot of time searching for something if I could not recognize it when I found it. Furthermore, I certainly would not "trust" someone engaged in such a foolish task.

We all have a pretty good idea of what is true and what isn't, but we hardly go around "defining it for ourselves", unless we are daft. Being "flawed" has nothing to do with it, unless we are so flawed we can't tell the difference. Truth and falsehood are useful everyday concepts, like a million other things. "The storm is named Frances" is true. Why get so complicated about it?

A "truism" is a self-evident truth, sometimes used to denote a statement which gains acceptance through usage rather than verifiability. Either way, whether a "truism" in art applies to one in life depends on circumstances.

I cannot be positive but to my knowledge Picasso never said "I am searching and not finding". However he did rather famously say just the opposite:

"Yo no busco, yo encuentro." ( "I do not search, I find.")

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